That Higgo hit last week was sweet! Let’s see if we can do it again, especially with it being a Major week. The highly anticipated U.S. Open is finally here, so this week we shift our sights onto the South Course at Torrey Pines. The track measures at 7,652 yards for a long par 71. This is the first time the U.S. Open is back at Torrey Pines since 2008, when Tiger Woods took it down. Jon Rahm comes into this event as the betting favorite at +1100. Bryson DeChambeau, the defending champion, comes in right behind Rahm at +1400, but there are plenty of other golfers in the field worth wagering on.
This will be a tough course to dominate, as it’s long, has narrow fairways, and the rough will be very thick. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the winner in single digits Sunday. This week I’m looking for players who have great “Strokes Gained: Total and Approach,” “Driving Distance,” and “Driving Accuracy” metrics. Being a good putter on poa greens is also a big plus.
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Wagering on golf always seems to come down to the wire, which is why I’ve become hooked. When it comes to my betting picks, you won’t find anything too groundbreaking here. Aside from digging into the data at the RickRunGood.com database and BetQL Model, I try to look for guys that have had past success at the particular course, value plays, and players that are trending in the right direction coming into an event.
The field is absolutely stacked, which will make for some must-watch viewing. Let’s dig in and find some winners!
MORE US OPEN: DFS Picks (coming soon)
U.S. Open picks, predictions 2021
*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Best bets to win outright
Brooks Koepka +1800
Why not? All Keopka does is dominate the U.S. Open. He’s won it twice and tied for second over the past three years. Koepka gets up for the big ones, as he is a four-time major champion. Since 2014, he’s only missed the cut at one major, and that was clearly because he rushed back from his knee surgery too soon at The Masters.
I’m actually kind of glad he missed the cut last weekend at the Palmetto. He will be ready to roll and we get a little bit of a better price on his outright odds. Metrics wise, he’s third in “Strokes Gained: Total” and 17th in “Driving Distance.”
On a side note, how amazing would a Koepka-DeChambeau final pairing be going into Sunday? The Golf Gods need to make this happen!
Rory McIlroy +2000
McIlroy comes into this a little under the radar, so at this price, he’s an autoplay for me. McIlroy fits both the eye test and analytics going into this week. He’s trending in the right direction, is second in “Driving Distance,” has the mental makeup to win the big one, and is a solid course fit.
McIlroy has also played well at Torrey with finishes of 16th, third, and fifth his past three times here.
Best sleeper/long-shot picks
In this section, I’m looking for guys that have 25-1 or longer odds. If any of them are in the running come Sunday, I will live bet and hedge for a little pizza money to make sure I come out on top.
Collin Morikawa +2500
Morikawa isn’t really a sleeper or a longshot, but odds wise, he fits this section. He goes as his putter goes, but his irons and approach game always keep him in contention. As for putting, he’s a Cali kid, so he has familiarity with poa greens.
Metrics wise, he is truly amazing to break down. Morikawa ranks first in “Strokes Gained: Approach” and “Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green,” and eighth in “Strokes Gained: Total.” He’s also 12th in “Driving Accuracy.” He knows the formula and will hit the fairways. I’ll be surprised if he isn’t in the mix come Sunday. At these odds, I had to throw some money down on him.
Patrick Reed +3000
Reed has burned me a few times this year, but I love him this week. He dominated Torrey Pines in January, and it should be more firm this time around, which plays right into his game. Reed has always played well at Torrey throughout his career. He’s never missed a cut in his four times here, and has a T-13 and a T-6 to go along with his win earlier this year. Reed also has terrific U.S. Open history, finishing inside the top 15 in four of his past six starts.
He ranks fourth in “Strokes Gained: Putting” and per the RickRunGood.com database, nobody in this field has putted better than him on Poa greens since 2015. He also ranks is seventh in “Strokes Gained: Total.”
He’s a big game hunter and a great scrambler, making him one of my favorite plays of the week.
Daniel Berger +5000
Most people don’t realize how good Berger has been since the COVID restart. He has 12 finishes of top 15 or better, including two wins.
I worry this course might be a little too long for him, but he’s too good to leave off the card at these odds.
Tyrrell Hatton +5000
He’s never played here before, but he played really well last weekend at Congaree, finishing second. Hatton is a great ball striker and ranks fourth on approach in the field and 10th in “Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee.”
Berger is a total flier, but he fits some of the categories I was looking for in a longshot. At 50-1, I couldn’t resist.
Lastly, the RickRunGood Tournament Predictor also loves him at these odds and has him listed as the No. 1 value play in the event.